NRL Round 25
Warriors v Broncos – Friday 26/8 Mt Smart Stadium 6.05pm
SRC Ratings: Warriors 1.53 – Broncos 2.51 (Broncos +5.5)
This is a tough game to pick with both teams desperate to win and secure a spot in the semi finals. NZ must have a distinct advantage playing at home and the Broncos again missing inspirational skipper Darren Lockyer. The Warriors to win but no value in the market.
Rabbitohs v Parramatta – Friday 26/8 ANZ Stadium 7.35pm
SRC Ratings: Rabbitohs 2.41 – Parramatta 1.58 (Rabbitohs +4.5)
Parramatta are deserved favourites in this match after just missing by 2 points last week against the Wests Tigers. Souths were soundly beaten by Penrith in an extremely poor performance given that their season was on the line. Both teams are now just a mathematical chance to play finals football. It’s just a game I would prefer to watch.
Sharks v Titans – Saturday 27/8 Shark Park 5.30pm
SRC Ratings: Sharks 2.90 – Titans 1.42 (Sharks +7.5)
The Titans are arguably the form team of the competition and I see no reason why they will not comfortable breeze past the Sharks. A cold winters night in Sydney has troubled the Titans in recent years but 2010 seems to show no such fears. The Sharks are looking to send skipper Trent Barrett out a winner but I see them as no match for the Titans. In saying that I still see the Gold Coast at their right price so no bet.
Raiders v Cowboys – Saturday 27/8 Canberra Stadium 7.30pm
SRC Ratings: Raiders 1.17 – Cowboys 5.15 (Cowboys +13.5)
No doubting the Raiders will be too strong for the Cowboys at home. I just see the start is being too big they are not giving up of late the Cowboys and I am not prepared to give them such a large start. In no way do I see them causing an upset so again I just want to stay out of this game.
Knights v Dragons – Saturday 27/8 Energy Australia 7.30pm
SRC Ratings: Knights 1.91 – Dragons 1.91 (Knights +0)
This is the game I like this weekend. The Knights have showed in recent weeks that they fear nobody. With the Dragons suffering a large defeat in Canberra last weekend i’m not sure where they are at. It looks as if they are just going through the motions with their minds solely focused on the finals. Newcastle on the other hand need to win to keep their faint finals hopes alive. I see some value in this market and suggest a win bet on Newcastle.
Suggested bet: Newcastle to win
Best price: $2.27
Suggest stake: 5 units
Tigers v Storm – Sunday 28/8 Leichhardt Oval 2pm
SRC Ratings: Tigers 1.58 – Storm 2.41 (Storm +4.5)
I do see some great value in Melbourne in this match with the Tigers possibly a touch flat after last weeks massive win against Parramatta. I just doubt the Storms motivation in away matches so it’s simply a match we must stay out of.
Roosters v Sea Eagles – Sunday 28/8 SFS 3pm
SRC Ratings: Roosters 1.74 – Sea Eagles 2.11 (Sea Eagles +2.5)
I was amazed when markets opened in this match to see the Roosters so short. They are coming off three straight losses and back up from Monday night. Manly had a great win against NZ last week and looked sharp in attack at times. With that all said the reason I was so surprised is I marked the Roosters out as specials but with the current odds on offer I must stay out. If they get out late in the weekend then it may become a bet.
Bulldogs v Panthers – Monday 29/8 ANZ Stadium 7pm
SRC Ratings: Bulldogs 2.41 – Penrith 1.58 (Bulldogs +4.5)
The Bulldogs should be primed to win this match and send club legend Luke Patten out a winner. I do think they are over the odds in the market but you could not be anything but impressed with Penrith last week. I simply can’t tip against them but a Bulldogs win would certainly not surprise.
Summary: Just the one bet this week with Newcastle at nice odds to defeat the Dragons. I do think the Titans and Roosters will both win but I just think they are found in the market and represent no value.
PGA Ridgewood Country Club
Let the playoffs begin! This week the PGA tour moves to the Ridgewood Country Club, New Jersey for the first week of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Defending champion is Heath Slocum.
1 – Tiger Woods $13.50 Betfair
Tiger is the pick this week after a better performance in the PGA two weeks ago and the chance of amazingly not currently qualifying for the Ryder Cup team I think he might he ready. Due to Tiger’s poor form and forced layoff from the tour he will start at 109th in the FedEx cup rankings. This has one major benefit a 7.10am tee time in round one. I see Tiger coming out of the blocks Thursday morning and this presents a great opportunity to secure the current Betfair odds and look for a crush after round one.
2 – Lucas Glover $120 Betfair
Liked the way Glover played last week with four rounds in the 60′s and is a player that can put great tournaments together when he finds form. A major winner in form at $120 I think that is enough to suggest he is worth including.
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Johnnie Walker Championship Gleneagles
The European tour moves to Gleneagles for this weeks Johnnie Walker Championship. Defending champion is Peter Hedblom.
1 – Gregory Havret $48 Betfair
Havret finished third last year and won in 2008 so it just may be a horses for courses situation and at the odds he is the pick. Let’s also not forget his stunning second in this year’s US Open behind Greame McDowell.
2 – Simon Dyson $29 Betfair
Liked the way Dyson played at last week’s Czech Open finishing in the top five. He played beautifully all week from tee to green but had limited luck with the flat stick. This was no more evident than on Sunday when he started with eight straight par’s. If he putts well he is a a definate contender, would not want to take any shorter than his current quote but so hard to leave out.
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Wyndam Championship Friday August 20th – Monday August 23rd
This is similar to the European event this week where the bigger names are not competing and again it is a very tricky tournament to pick. But I do think I have been able to find some value outside of the favoured player’s.
Jason Dufner
This guy is coming off a very impressive top 5 finish at the PGA. His is at very good odds and his form is better than most of his more fancied rivals.
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Czech Open Thursday August 19th – Sunday August 22nd
This is one of the European tour’s smaller tournaments with the majority of the big name player’s not present. This makes the event really wide open but also presents us with plenty of value.
Simon Dyson
I am selecting on top after his strong finish at last week’s PGA where he tied for 12th. He has a 7.50am tee time in round one and I am looking for him to make a fast start and be well in contention.
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NRL Round 23
Brisbane v Parramatta, Friday August 13th Suncorp Stadium, 7.35pm
There is no doubt this is the final throw of the dice for the Eels. It now looks as if 30 points is the number to qualify for this year’s final series and if that is the case Parramatta must win there remaining four games. They have a great chance with Brisbane missing their inspirational skipper Darren Lockyer through injury. I can see this game coming down to the wire but the Broncos seem to be gaining momentum and I think they will win and end the season for Parramatta.
No Bet: There is talk Lockyer may play and that changes things significantly. I do believe Parramatta are a chance but not a match to get involved in.
Cronulla v Roosters, Friday August 13th Toyota Stadium, 7.35pm
Cronulla were simply awful last week against the Warriors and again run into a team with everything to play for. The Roosters were fantastic last Sunday against the competition’s benchmark the Dragons. It would be a major upset to see the Sharks win this they are simply not putting in and the Roosters are eyeing off a top four position.
Bet: This is our first bet for the weekend. We will be having 3 units on the Roosters at -9.5 at the 1.91. They look too classy for the Sharks all over the park. I thought they really played fantastic against the Dragons and will be far to strong for the Sharks.
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USPGA Championship
AUGUST 9-15, 2010
WHISTLING STRAITS | KOHLER, WISCONSIN
Another major and again the focus is on the World number one but this time not because he is in red hot form and looks to be the man to beat. This time the focus is on Tiger for the opposite his lack of form. Tiger last week recorded his worst ever finish in a professional golf tournament finishing second last at Firestone. What makes his performance so bad is he is a seven time winner at the WGC Firestone. The one thing I have learned in life is never to knock a champion because as soon as you do it from nowhere they jump up and make you look silly. I can’t back Tiger this week but I will suggest his price of $17.50 on Betfair is quite remarkable considering he is a 14 time major winner and arguably the greatest golfer in history. So if we are staying clear of Woods then where do we look. Michelson is the obvious favourite to win but will the course suit. It is unforgiving if you don’t find the fairway and that scares me as Phil is notorious for being an unreliable driver of the ball, but he could still scramble his way to a win. Hunter Mahan fresh off a two shot win at Firestone and a great driver of the ball comes into contention, as does Northern Ireland’s Rory McIlroy. But will we see another long shot come to the fore like YE Yang in last years tournament. He started ober 200/1 on Betfair and beat Tiger while going head to head on the final day, whatever the result I am sure we can find you some value and hopefully the eventual winner.
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A-League Round 1
August 5th-8th
The sixth edition of the Hyundai A-League begins tonight with the New Boys the Melbourne Heart out to start the season with a bang. It also dawns a new era for their opponents with Graham Arnold taking over the reins of the Central Coast Mariners.
The Heart will be hoping for a big turnout as the A-League hosts it’s first game at the new AAMI park purpose built for Football and the Melbourne Storm.
On Saturday night the big Grand Final replay will be held at the Sydney Football Stadium as 2009/2010 champions Sydney FC welcome arch rivals Melbourne Victory to town.
In other matches Adelaide are at home to Newcastle on Friday night and later that evening Perth Glory will host the North Queensland Fury.
In the final match the local derby will be played at Skiiled Park on the Gold Coast between Gold Coast and the Roar. Let’s hope the Gold Coast faithful turn out and support there team in 2010/2011.
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